This past week the World Health Organization has declared the coronavirus infection (AKA COVID-19) a pandemic.
As a result, some radical measures have been taken to prevent the further spread of this virus here in the U.S. Those measures include, but are not limited to, school closings, public gathering cancellations, stadium event cancellations, and entire sports seasons being cancelled or postponed. Health systems have taken significant steps to help protect both our patients and our staff. Additionally, we have observed some pockets of panic with respect to the hoarding of supplies and food and medicine.
All the while the American public has been listening to news reports that seem to gravitate toward one of two extremes. On the one hand are the news reports that suggest we are facing the apocalypse itself. Predictions have been made suggesting we are going to overwhelm our healthcare system, millions will be infected, tens of thousands will die, and our economy will collapse.
On the other hand there are those who seem to think we are all overreacting. They compare this simply to the seasonal flu. They wouldn't cancel any events, schools, or meetings. They think it is purely a hyped-up political scare tactic to make the current administration look inept.
So, what is REALLY going to happen over the coming weeks and months with respect to COVID-19?
We don't know.
I'll say it again: We don't know.
Nobody knows.
Our predictions are as bad and unreliable as forecasting the weather for next year.
And the simple reason is this: This EXACT scenario hasn't happened before. COVID-19 is new. It is not SARS. It is not Swine Flu. It is not Ebola. We are simply not scientifically advanced enough to plug in the data on this virus and predict the results.
Not only that, but we have no way to predict the exact effectiveness of the social distancing measures we are currently taking. How much will cancelling the NBA season help? We don't know. How much will cancelling college classes help? We don't know. What, exactly, is the benefit to moving employees to remote work vs. on site? We don't know. Yes, we DO know that social distancing helps. But no one can tell us for certain just how much it will help in this particular case.
We.Simply.Don't.Know.
People hate that. I hate that. As humans it grates against our souls to think we don't know something. We have an innate and natural desire to know all! On the one hand that is not a bad thing. It fuels science and promotes knowledge. But when uncoupled to humility we are prone to think we can predict just about anything. We can't.
Saying we don't know is terribly unpopular. It feels like a cop out. It feels unworthy of our great accomplishments in the realm of science. It feels like we are ignoring all sorts of evidence to say "I don't know." Can't we just look at data from China and Italy and Korea and use that evidence to tell us what will happen here? No. All that evidence tell us is what happened THERE. Our culture is different. Our people are different. Our measures are different. The date is different. The virus itself may be different. There are simply too many factors to make guessing reliable. The problem is not a lack of data. The problem is that we are not God. Maybe that is what we hate most of all.
We are afraid of "I don't know." And fear makes us all do funny things. As a result, we prefer predictions, even wrong predictions, to the uncertainty of the future. We gravitate toward the extremes because it is more comfortable than "time will tell."
But guess what. Time will tell. Tomorrow we will know more than we do today. Next year we will know more about COVID-19 than we did in 2020. And we may learn something about the value of social distancing, the value of good hygiene. the value of immunizations, the value of being prepared.
In the midst of much uncertainty about coronavirus, I would remind people that there is much we DO know.
We know we should love one another.
We know we should be kind, considerate, patient, respectful and humble.
We know that missing a few public events is really no big deal in the end.
We know the economy will recover.
We know that God is good.
We know that "God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whosoever believes in Him will not perish, but have everlasting life."
I hope you know these things. I hope you know that panic is no way to live your life. I hope you know you should wash your hands, don't cough on others, and use common sense when it comes to your risk of illness.
Mostly I hope you know that this life, with or without the coronavirus, is fleeting and fading. None of us are guaranteed another day. Are things well with your soul? Have you considered the gospel of Jesus Christ? Have you dealt with your sin? What a shame to survive a virus but lose your soul to sin.
I don't know what will happen tomorrow. But I know what happened in the past. I know what Christ did for my sin. And I know what that means for my future. How about yours?
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